F1 2025 driver market taking shape

Pierre Gasly and Lance Stroll have had their immediate futures secured with confirmation they’ll remain where they are for now.

Gasly has inked a ‘multi-year’ deal with Alpine that will see him lead the Anglo-French mark into F1’s new regulatory era.

At Aston Martin, there was never any doubt that Stroll would be retained though he was only officially announced as staying on Thursday.

There had been suggestions Yuki Tsunoda could find his way to the Silverstone squad, though that concept has now been put on ice.

Tsunoda has a 2025 contract with RB, but his links to Honda implied he could switch to Aston Martin when the Japanese manufacturer moves its power unit supply in 2026.

The green team is one of four to have both its drivers confirmed for at least 2025, with Red Bull Racing, Ferrari, and McLaren also in the same boat.

Only one team has neither driver confirmed, with Haas set to lose Nico Hulkenberg to Sauber next season and, thus far, no decision (at least not publicly communicated) on whether Kevin Magnussen will continue.

It is expected Ferrari junior Oliver Bearman will slot into one of the seats, with Esteban Ocon and Valtteri Bottas thought to be the other drivers in contention – along with Magnussen – for the other car.

Bottas will not remain with Sauber, which has one seat free.

Its main target is Sainz, though the Spaniard has dragged his feet on a deal that is understood to have been tabled.

Sauber becomes Audi from 2026, but to road to success is likely to be a long one.

Should Sainz be unwilling to take the punt, Ocon has been touted as a possibility, while Liam Lawson’s name has been floated as a wildcard for the drive, too.

That’s assuming the New Zealander doesn’t get a drive at RB, and it seems the only way that will happen is if Daniel Ricciardo is retained.

The Australian is currently without a contract, while Lawson is known to have a clause that leaves him a free agent to move elsewhere should Red Bull not be able to find him a race drive for 2025.

A surprisingly important player in this year’s market is Williams, which has Alex Albon locked away for now and a free seat alongside him.

Sainz has been heavily linked with that in recent weeks, though Bottas too is thought to have a reasonable shot at it.

Indeed, suggestions as recently as the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix claimed the Finn had done a deal for the drive.

If he has, it hasn’t been announced and the rumour mill has gone quiet on that topic, though he was spotted in the Red Bull Ring paddock in conversation with team boss James Vowles.

With Alpine having secured Gasly, speculation now turns to who will partner him.

There are a host of names in the mix, including Jack Doohan.

A strong argument can be made for the French-owned team promoting the Australian from reserve driver as he is the leading player in its Academy programme.

Thus far, Renault/Alpine academy members have had greater success after leaving the programme – Oscar Piastri, Zhou Guanyu did just that – than trusting the team will eventually promote them.

Failing to offer Doohan the drive would be another such example, making a mockery of the academy’s existence.

Nonetheless, Mick Schumacher is also in the frame, and will test for the squad next week alongside Doohan, while the likes of Bottas and Sainz have also been linked.

Indeed, the latter is thought to have an attractive offer on the table, though it remains in the same stage as the Sauber deal if that is the case.

The final empty seat is at Mercedes, with Ocon and Kimi Antonelli thought to be the contenders for that drive.

Antonelli is the favourite, though there are a lot of caveats around the young Italian.

At just 17, he’s extremely inexperienced. He’s not had a stellar season in F2, though that’s partly due to his team struggling to get on top of the all-new car for 2024, and there is a fear that rushing him may do more harm than good.

The flipside is that, if he’s good enough, he’ll be fine. It’s a tough call, especially when securing someone to plug the gap for a year to allow more time to assess him is near impossible and that may mean Mercedes simply has no other choice.

However, it’s worth remembering Ocon is managed by team boss Toto Wolff.

With the summer break fast approaching it’s highly likely there will be further movement in the market ahead of that time.

Key to it all remains Sainz. With multiple options on the table, the Spaniard can essentially choose his poison.

From there, most other seats fall into place quite predictably. However, until the 29-year-old makes a decision, it’s anyone’s guess in terms of who goes where.

2025 F1 driver line-ups